It’s the question we all want to know–what will the Supreme Court do with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. We have crowdsourced a daily prediction tracker for the four consolidated cases. In real-time, the prediction tracker calculates how the 11,000+ members of FantasySCOTUS.net will vote on this soon-to-be landmark case.
At this early stage–three months before oral arguments with a limited sample size–the members of FantasySCOTUS.net are predicting that the individual mandate will not survive the Supreme Court.
|The threshold question is whether the suit is permitted by the Anti-Injunction Act? The 11th Circuit held that suit was not barred by the AIA.
|The most critical question is whether the individual mandate exceeds Congress’ powers, and is unconstitutional. The 11th Circuit held that the mandate exceeded Congress’s powers and is unconstitutional.
|Assuming the mandate is unconstitutional, the Court will next consider whether the mandate is severable from the remainder of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. The 11th Circuit held that the mandate was severable.
|The final question is whether the expansion of Medicaid is constitutional. The 11th Circuit found that the expansion was in fact constitutional.
These predictions are still rather preliminary. Most members do not offer predictions until after oral arguments–in this case nearly 6 hours of discussion. We will provide updates on this significant case throughout the course of the Term. To learn more about the FantasySCOTUS.net crowdsourced methodology, please see my co-authored article in the Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual Property.
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