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Final FantasySCOTUS.net Predictions for Health Care Cases #SCOTUS

In approximately twelve hours, the Supreme Court will decide the consolidated Health Care Cases. Here are our final predictions.

The mandate is going to be struck down, and it will be severed.

The threshold question is whether the suit is permitted by the Anti-Injunction Act? The 11th Circuit held that suit was not barred by the AIA.

  • 94.28% predict that the suit can proceed, notwithstanding the AIA.
  • 5.72% predict that the suit will be barred by the AIA
Since oral argument, the numbers have increased somewhat as to whether the AIA will serve as a jurisdictional bar.
The most critical question is whether the individual mandate exceeds Congress’ powers, and is unconstitutional. The 11th Circuit held that the mandate exceeded Congress’s powers and is unconstitutional.

  • 57.14% predict that the Court will find the mandate unconstitutional.
  • 42.86% predict that the Court will uphold the mandate.
  • Of particular interest, 58.1% of members predict that Justice Kennedy will vote to strike down the mandate. Chief Justice Roberts, as well as Justices Scalia, Thomas, and Alito are all predicted to strike down the mandate at 72.1%, 82.9%, 89.0%, and 83.4% respectively.
Following oral argument, the percentage of voters who think the mandate will be struck down as jumped from about 51% to 57%. There has been a lot of movement in the last week or so.
Assuming the mandate is unconstitutional, the Court will next consider whether the mandate is severable from the remainder of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. The 11th Circuit held that the mandate was severable.

  • 68.67% predict that the Court will sever the mandate from PPACA.
  • 31.33% predict that the Court will find that the mandate is not severable.
  • Of note, 67.5% of members predict that Justice Kennedy will vote to find the mandate severable.
The severability numbers have dropped, while the mandate unconstitutional numbers has increased. This tells me that people think that the entire ACA is going down.
The final question is whether the expansion of Medicaid is constitutional. The 11th Circuit found that the expansion was in fact constitutional.

  • 74.38% predict that the Court will uphold the Medicaid expansion.
  • 25.62% predict that the Court will find the Medicaid expansion unconstitutional.

This is really the sleeper issue. The numbers dropped right after argument, but have leveled off.


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